Key Points
- Bitcoin’s $90 billion pullback is minor compared to the broader market, reinforcing its long-term positioning.
- Capital is flowing out of risk assets and even safe havens into Bitcoin, strengthening its haven status.
Bitcoin recently experienced a $90 billion pullback, which is considered minor in the face of the macro deleveraging cycle.
This could potentially lead to the next upward movement arriving sooner than the market expects.
Bitcoin’s Path to $100k
Despite market consensus, the path to $100k for Bitcoin appears increasingly likely following the ‘trade dump’.
Since February 19th, the U.S. stock market has lost $11 trillion in market cap, with over half of that drawdown happening post-‘Liberation Day’.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has only corrected 5.17% from its $1.74 trillion valuation, making a $90 billion dip seem minor compared to the broader market flush.
This increasing divergence from risk assets and macro swings is strengthening Bitcoin’s long-term positioning.
Long-term Holders Accumulate
Short-term holder supply has declined to a two-month low, reflecting approximately 3 million BTC in realized losses amid Bitcoin’s retracement from its $109k all-time high.
On the other hand, long-term holder (LTH) supply has expanded during the same period.
The Net Position Change metrics show aggressive accumulation at an average cost basis of $84k per BTC, indicating strong conviction.
Despite being capped below $85k, a critical breakeven threshold for weak hands, Bitcoin’s persistent LTH accumulation and widening decoupling from U.S. equities hint at a critical inflection point.
This could potentially set the stage for Bitcoin to reclaim $100k, driven by capital flowing out of risk assets and even safe havens into Bitcoin.
Germany’s recent pullback of 1,200 tonnes of gold from New York reserves, worth $124 billion, could potentially weaken Gold’s role as a global haven if more countries follow suit.
With Bitcoin holding strong while the S&P500 and Gold lose steam, Bitcoin is in a prime position to attract capital from governments, institutions, and retail investors alike.
Bitcoin’s Haven Status
In the short term, to trigger FOMO, Bitcoin must break resistance at $85k-$87k, a critical zone where profit-taking intensifies.
Establishing a strong bid wall within this range is crucial for bullish continuation.
Since March 12, whale cohorts have aggressively accumulated, driving holdings to a three-month-high.
With these deep-pocketed entities absorbing supply, a retest of the $77k support seems increasingly unlikely.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold strong despite macro uncertainty continues to fuel its case as a hedge against market turbulence.
As long as demand remains firm, Bitcoin’s path to six-figure price discovery remains well-positioned.
Capital inflows could potentially increase, especially with U.S. stocks facing increased downside risk from rising tariff pressures.
