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Persistent Bitcoin Downtrend: Time to Rethink Your Forecast?

Exploring the Impact of Bitcoin's Exchange Reserve Drop on Market Predictions

Max Porter by Max PorterVerified Author
Mar 20, 2024
2 min. read
Persistent Bitcoin Downtrend: Time to Rethink Your Forecast?

Key Points

  • Bitcoin’s price has been experiencing a downturn due to high selling pressure.
  • Despite the bearish trend, some metrics suggest a potential trend reversal for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price has been on a downward trend, registering a more than 4% drop in the last 24 hours. Multiple price corrections have kept the cryptocurrency in bearish territory. High selling pressure is a significant factor contributing to the price drop, raising questions about whether this will cause Bitcoin’s value to fall further.

Bitcoin’s Market Performance

The bearish trend in Bitcoin’s price has affected the entire crypto market. Bitcoin’s value fell by over 14% last week, and in the last 24 hours alone, it dropped by over 4%. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $61,396.57 with a market capitalization of over $1.2 trillion.

An analysis by tugbachain, a CryptoQuant analyst, highlighted Bitcoin’s exchange reserve. The analysis showed a consistent decline in exchange reserves since 2020, regardless of whether prices have been falling or rising. This suggests that in the upcoming bull run, Bitcoin might face more supply shocks compared to previous periods, potentially impacting its price positively.

Selling Pressure and Potential Trend Reversal

A check on other related metrics revealed that Bitcoin’s net deposit on exchanges was high compared to the last seven days, indicating that investors were selling. Both Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium and Korea premium were in the red, signifying dominant selling sentiment among US and Korean investors. As a result, a continued downtrend in the short term seemed likely.

Persistent Bitcoin Downtrend: Time to Rethink Your Forecast? Persistent Bitcoin Downtrend: Time to Rethink Your Forecast? Persistent Bitcoin Downtrend: Time to Rethink Your Forecast?

Crypto analyst Ali identified key support zones for Bitcoin, noting strong support near $61,100. If Bitcoin fails to test this support, its value might drop to $56k. However, if Bitcoin can stay above $61,100, it could see a trend reversal and reach its resistance zone near the $66k mark again. This possibility is supported by Bitcoin’s aSORP turning green, indicating that more investors were selling at a loss, a sign of a potential market bottom in the midst of a bear market.

A look at Bitcoin’s daily chart revealed that Bitcoin’s Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) registered an uptick. Its price also touched the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a potential trend reversal. However, the MACD continued to support the sellers, showing a bearish advantage in the market.

Tags: Bitcoin (BTC)

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