Key Points
- Bitcoin’s recent 26% drawdown in 2025 could indicate either a mid-bull correction or the start of a larger correction.
- Despite the decline, some analysts believe the current cycle drawdown might be less severe due to market maturation.
Bitcoin’s [BTC] 26% drawdown in 2025 could potentially become the largest in the current cycle if the decline continues.
This plunge, according to Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, is currently equivalent to the pullback in August 2024.
BTC’s Performance and Predictions
After reaching a peak at $109K in January, BTC experienced a retracement to $74K this week, primarily due to macro uncertainty.
This represents a correction of over 30%. However, it has since recovered to $79K.
In comparison to historical drawdowns, it remains uncertain whether BTC is out of the woods or if the worst is yet to come.
Past BTC drawdowns, especially during bear market phases, were significantly more severe than the current 36%-30% decline.
For instance, in 2012, 2025, and 2019, BTC experienced a drop of over 80% and lasted 6–12 months after hitting a price peak.
Analysts’ Opinions
Currently, BTC has declined about 30% over the past 3 months.
If past trends are any indication, this might just be the start of a larger correction that could last for the next 3-9 months.
However, some analysts believe that the current cycle drawdown might be less severe due to market maturation.
Glassnode, for example, expects a potential bottom around the $74K-$70K area.
On-chain analyst Axel Adler shares a similar opinion, stating that BTC has bottomed out and is now in an accumulation phase.
This is based on the STH (short-term holder) MVRV indicator, which mirrors the local bottom seen last August.
However, Moreno warns that the bottom hasn’t been fully marked yet, as several bullish indicators for BTC are yet to show improvement.
The current 30% drawdown pales in comparison to the past cycle’s bear phases, which averaged an 80% price drop.
Therefore, the current pullback might be a mid-bull correction before another leg up.
That being said, it could also be the start of a larger correction if bullish conditions don’t improve.
