Key Points
- Former President Donald Trump leads in major prediction markets ahead of U.S. presidential elections.
- Concerns of potential manipulation and the role of cryptocurrencies in campaign contributions are highlighted.
With the U.S. presidential elections just around the corner, former President Donald Trump seems to be leading in major prediction markets. On Polymarket, for example, Trump has a 56.5% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris who has 43.6%.
Trump’s Lead and Market Concerns
A similar trend is observed on Kalshi, where Trump holds a 52% lead over Harris’s 48%. Both markets seem to indicate growing confidence in Trump’s potential return to the Oval Office.
However, with Trump’s increasing odds, there are rising suspicions of potential manipulation. Concerns are focused on specific accounts, such as “Fredi9999”, believed to be owned by a single investor trying to sway the odds in Trump’s favor.
This has led to questions about the transparency and accuracy of Polymarket and Kalshi’s predictions. Mark Cuban has suggested that foreign investments might be distorting the results, as U.S. citizens are restricted from participating on such platforms.
Response and Crypto Influence
In response to these rumors, Tarek Mansour, co-founder of Kalshi, stated on Twitter that Trump’s odds are not being artificially increased by a select few.
The role of cryptocurrencies in this election cycle is distinct. Industry leaders have actively contributed to campaigns. The Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini, each donated $1 million in Bitcoin to support Trump. Meanwhile, Harris received backing from Ripple’s co-founder Chris Larsen who contributed $10 million in XRP to her campaign.
Bitcoin’s Performance and Election
Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has been fluctuating in the final week leading up to the elections. After reaching a peak of $73,000, its value dropped to $69,085.85. However, this could change soon. Historically, Bitcoin has followed a bullish path during favorable election odds for Trump, hinting at a possible price surge if he wins.
As Election Day nears, everyone is watching to see how the result might impact Bitcoin’s trajectory.
