Key Points
- Analysts remain uncertain about the likelihood of an Ethereum ETF approval in May.
- Views differ on potential litigation if the Ethereum ETFs are rejected.
Analysts are split on the possibility of an Ethereum ETF approval in May.
The consensus is that the chances are slim.
Possible Reactions to Rejection
Speculations are rife about the potential outcomes if the Ethereum ETFs are rejected.
Some wonder whether Grayscale might sue the SEC as it did in 2022 when the regulator rejected its application to convert GBTC to a spot Bitcoin ETF.
However, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas believes that Grayscale is unlikely to pursue litigation if the Ethereum ETFs are rejected.
He argues that the Ethereum ETF futures market has a much smaller market share than Bitcoin’s.
Contrasting Views
Balchunas’ view contrasts with that of JPMorgan analysts.
JPMorgan maintains a positive outlook on an eventual approval for spot Ethereum ETFs.
Lead analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou suggests that litigation could follow if there is no spot Ethereum ETF approval in May.
Nonetheless, executives from potential issuers like VanEck and CoinShares are not optimistic about an approval in May.
VanEck CEO, Jan van Eck, has compared the spot Bitcoin ETF approval process to its Ethereum ETF filing and indicated that the outlook for Ethereum is not promising.
CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti does not expect an Ethereum ETF approval this year.
In contrast, Grayscale CLO Graig Salm remains confident of an approval in May and advises not to interpret the regulator’s silence as indicative of a specific outcome.
It remains uncertain whether any individual or potential issuer will pursue litigation if spot Ethereum ETF applications are rejected in May.
