Key Points
- Bitcoin’s bullish conviction has weakened, increasing the potential for dominant selling pressure.
- Bitcoin’s range continues to narrow, with lack of demand and decreasing whale activity contributing to bearish sentiment.
Bitcoin [BTC] continues to trade within a narrowing range, between $73k and $60.7k. The bullish conviction for this cryptocurrency has notably weakened, and it appears that selling pressure could soon take over.
Analysis of the Current Situation
Previously, it was reported that bulls needed to defend the $64.5k support zone to push above the $66k resistance. However, this did not occur. Instead, the market saw a rejection at $67k and a move to $62.8k. This shift occurred during a period of slowing whale activity and ETF inflows, suggesting a potential for continued short-term consolidation.
Crypto analyst Whale Panda noted on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin ETF flows were negative for three consecutive days in late April. Blackrock’s ETF IBIT, after receiving the largest inflows earlier the same month, saw a third day of zero inflows. This lack of demand was also reflected in the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF (GBTC), which saw consistent outflows.
Market Indicators and Predictions
The whale transaction count has been on a decline since mid-March, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez. Additionally, the price of Bitcoin lost its higher timeframe bullish impetus over the past month, and the Open Interest in Bitcoin has been decreasing since April 10th. This decrease coincided with the price drop below $70k, indicating a bearish sentiment as speculators showed reluctance to go long.
The Funding Rate, which was very positive in March, hovered just over zero in April, further demonstrating speculator hesitancy. The spot CVD, which indicates the presence of buyers in the spot market, has been on a relentless downtrend for the past three weeks. This suggests that Bitcoin could either trend downward or remain within its current range.
A short-term range between $66.9k and $59.7k was identified, falling within the lower end of the existing $60k-$73k range. The mid-range mark at $63.3k was breached over the weekend, suggesting another drop to $60k could occur later this week.
The RSI on the 6-hour chart was below neutral 50, signaling bearish momentum. Combined with the lack of demand, it seems likely that another downturn could be imminent.
