Key Points
- Bitcoin’s value has dropped by 12% over the past week due to macro uncertainty and tariff issues.
- Lekker Capital founder, Quinn Thompson, believes Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2025.
Bitcoin’s value has seen a significant drop, losing 12% of its value over the past week. This decrease has brought its value to a new low of $74k on Monday. This decline is largely due to concerns about tariffs and macro uncertainty, causing a drawdown of about 30% from its all-time high of $109.5k.
Bitcoin Could Reach New Highs
The founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, Quinn Thompson, believes that Bitcoin could reach a new all-time high in 2025. Thompson has previously made accurate predictions and stated, “Me: Calls Trump win early 2024. Calls BTC 100k in summer 2024. Calls BTC correction to low 80Ks since late December 2024…BTC > 110k in 2025.” He also suggested that the macro narrative could shift positively due to upcoming tax cuts and deregulation.
Short-Term Concerns
Despite the positive long-term outlook, traders have been cautious in the short term. Kelly Greer of Crucible Capital noted that options have been hedging heavily against downside risks. She stated, “Protection is the most in demand that it’s been in 12 months across maturities, most pronounced in 1 week. Gamma is peak negative – will exacerbate volatility.”
The Skew Delta 25 indicator tracks demand for puts or calls over days, weeks, or months. Negative readings indicate a high demand for puts (negative sentiment), while positive values suggest bullish sentiments.
Greg Magadini from Amberdata suggested that short-sellers may be best positioned for gains in the short term, stating, “Short-dated options have seen even more puts premium…I think opportunity favors crypto shorts (the laggard theory) as opposed to longs right now (the safe haven theory).”
From a valuation perspective, Bitcoin’s status is mixed. Slow capital inflows, as per the realized cap, suggest that Bitcoin might be entering a bear market. However, on another valuation model – the MVRV-Z score – Bitcoin hit a local top and seemed to be cooling towards the level seen last September, indicating Bitcoin might be relatively cheap at its current value.
