Key Points
- Bitcoin’s network block size could potentially expand to 4 MB by 2026, according to Mempool analysts.
- This growth could be driven by an increase in inscriptions on the Bitcoin network.
The scalability of Bitcoin (BTC) may see further enhancement by the end of 2026. This is due to a projected growth in block size to 4 MB.
Mempool, a research firm specializing in the Bitcoin ecosystem, has suggested that blockchain growth driven by inscriptions could significantly increase in the coming years.
Block Size Expansion
The firm’s report stated, “If we see massive growth in the use of Bitcoin to store arbitrary data (resulting in consistent 4 MB blocks) the blockchain would reach 1TB by late 2026…We should expect a 1 TB blockchain after 2 – 4 years, and 2 TB in 7 – 9 years time.”
Currently, the block size stands at approximately 1.69 MB per block. This was initially capped at 1 MB before the SegWit (Segregated Witness) upgrade in 2017, which significantly scaled the network.
Demand Beyond 1 MB
Following the SegWit upgrade, there was a rise in inscription protocols allowing additional arbitrary data (ranging from texts to smart contracts) on the Bitcoin network.
This led to a surge in demand for block space beyond the 1 MB limit, as set by miners and the network’s default settings, according to Mempool.
The average block size growth surged between 1.11 MB and 1.69 MB, suggesting more transaction data per block. Mempool suggested that this trend of massive adoption of inscription protocols could expand the block size to 4 MB.
However, not all Bitcoin core developers are supportive of this outlook. Luke Dash Jr, a renowned developer, has referred to ordinals and inscriptions as ‘spam’ and ‘an attack’ on the Bitcoin network. Dash has consistently advocated for capping the block size below 1 MB to limit this ‘attack’ vector.
Contrarily, Solana’s theoretical block size limit can reach 128 MB at a much higher throughput, implying that Solana is more scalable but less decentralized than BTC.
The impact of differing views on Bitcoin’s block size increment on its adoption and scalability in the future remains uncertain.
