Key Points
Expectations for the approval of the highly anticipated Ethereum Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are dropping.
Justin Sun, the founder of the Tron network, has made a significant prediction about the regulatory chances of the Spot Ethereum ETF.
He indicated that it’s unlikely the approval will come through by the May deadline.
Increasing Pessimism About Ethereum Spot ETFs Approval
Earlier this year, the cryptocurrency industry was hopeful about the Ethereum spot ETFs.
However, as the decision date of May 23 nears, pessimism about the SEC approving the products is growing.
Tron founder, Justin Sun, is certain that the spot ETH ETFs will not be approved by the SEC in the coming month.
According to Sun, the crypto industry needs to prepare for a long-term education process with regulators to help them understand cryptocurrency, even though he believes the industry has already been doing this.
Sun is not the only prominent figure in the crypto space expressing doubt about the spot products getting approval from the regulatory watchdog.
Last week, Nate Geraci, the President of the ETF store, hinted that the products might not be accepted due to the SEC’s reduced involvement with ETH spot ETF issuers compared to previous interactions.
Geraci believes this is logical but also wonders if the Commission learned from the situation with Spot Bitcoin ETFs.
He has identified two potential outcomes for the spot ETH ETFs, which are Commission clearance or legal action.
Approval Odds for Spot ETH ETFs Decrease
The likelihood of the spot ETH ETFs being approved in May has decreased since the request was made.
Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform, shows that the chances of acceptance are now estimated at 11%.
When the Spot ETFs for Bitcoin were approved on January 10, the odds were measured at 76%, indicating a significant decrease over time.
Additionally, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has placed his approval odds at around 35%, a drop from his initial prediction of 70% in February.
The Bloomberg expert believes the Commission should approve the spot ETH ETFs for several reasons.
However, none of the sources or signs that provided him with an optimistic 2.5-month prognosis for Bitcoin spot ETFs are present this time.
Even though Balchunas’ odds towards the May deadline have decreased, he believes the spot products are likely to get accepted in the long term.
