Key Points
- Bitcoin has maintained a strong position above $60K since mid-July, with potential for further growth.
- Upcoming catalysts such as Trump’s pro-crypto stance and the launch of the Ethereum ETF could bolster Bitcoin’s bullish scenario.
Bitcoin [BTC] has consistently held a position above $60K since mid-July, following a period below this mark in the first part of the month. This rise was in part due to what has been termed the ‘Trump attack’.
The recovery, which saw over 8% gains, hit a stumbling block near $65K. At the time of writing, the recovery had cooled and slipped below $64K.
The ‘Trump Trade’ and Bitcoin
Charles Edwards, the founder of the Capriole Investment crypto hedge fund, suggested that BTC’s stalling near $65K was due to a drop in the price of NASDAQ. He argued that the factors causing the NASDAQ drop, imminent easing and an AI earnings plateau, would not impact BTC and could in fact be bullish for BTC.
The NASDAQ is heavily tech-focused, and investors have reportedly been shifting from big tech stocks to small-cap stocks in anticipation of a possible Trump win, a move referred to as the ‘Trump trade’.
Pro-Crypto Stance Could Boost BTC
Market analysts have suggested that Trump’s pro-crypto stance could bolster a bullish scenario for BTC. QCP Capital analysts view Trump’s VP pick, J.D. Vance, as a positive catalyst for BTC. They expect Vance to push for crypto-friendly regulations if Trump is elected.
Another potential catalyst for BTC is the upcoming launch of the Ethereum [ETH] ETF, expected on the 23rd of July. On-chain metrics also support a bullish outlook.
Philip Swift, founder of Bitcoin Magazine Pro, noted that the MVRV-Z score, a BTC market cycle top and bottom indicator, showed potential for further growth. He stated that the metric was not overheated and did not signal a market top at the time of writing, suggesting more headroom for BTC.
Crypto options worth $1.8 billion are set to expire on the 19th of July, according to Deribit data. The ‘max pain’ for both BTC and ETH for the looming options expiry stood at $62K and $3.15K, respectively. This suggests a potential dip for BTC and ETH, but a rise could also be possible, particularly given the expected launch of the ETH ETF next week.
