Key Points
- Bitcoin exhibits potential for short-term price volatility due to upcoming options expiry.
- Despite increased demand in the U.S., the Coinbase Premium remains near zero, indicating no imminent bull run.
Bitcoin’s demand in the United States has seen a rise. However, the Coinbase Premium, a key market indicator, remains close to zero.
Bitcoin’s Short-Term Volatility
Bitcoin is predicted to experience short-term price volatility, primarily due to options expiry at the week’s end. An increase in exchange reserves might also trigger a selling spree.
The MVRV metric indicates that Bitcoin is at a pivotal resistance level. A breach of this could potentially trigger a strong price uptrend. Furthermore, breaking the 155-day MA could set the stage for a market rally similar to the one in October last year.
U.S. Demand and Coinbase Premium
The Bitcoin spot ETF flow table suggests a positive trend in the total flows over the past two weeks, indicating bullish expectations among retail investors. The 30-day net change in holdings has also turned positive, as noted by Ki Young Ju.
The U.S. Bitcoin reserve ratio has been steadily increasing, likely due to the demand for spot ETF. This slow but steady rise has been observed over the past fourteen months.
Despite the rising demand in the U.S., the Coinbase Premium Index shows that the demand is not high enough to command a significant premium. Coinbase, a major crypto exchange for U.S. investors, typically sees a high Bitcoin premium during a bull run. However, the current low Coinbase premium suggests that a bull run is not yet in play.
