Key Points
- Bitcoin’s MVRV has returned to 1.74, a historical support level, indicating a slowdown in profit realization.
- Currently, 88% of the Bitcoin supply is profitable as investor expectations shift.
The last fortnight has seen Bitcoin (BTC) experience substantial gains, moving from a local low of $83k to a local high of $97k.
This recent price increase has left the majority of Bitcoin holders in a profitable position. Data from Glassnode shows that 88% of the Bitcoin supply was profitable at the time of writing.
Profit Margins and Investor Expectations
The implication is that both short-term and long-term holders are profiting, especially those who acquired BTC at $94k and below. With this group in profit, losses are now primarily among buyers in the $95K to $100K range.
As profit margins increase, Bitcoin has bounced back from its long-term mean of 75%, indicating a change in investor expectations. This suggests less market capitulation.
The rebound is a sign of improving sentiment, with demand remaining strong enough to absorb profit-taking. This supports the likelihood of a sustained price recovery.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio
With investor sentiment improving, current holders are selling less Bitcoin. Glassnode observed this, noting that Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has returned to its long-term mean of 1.74.
This mean has previously been linked with the consolidation phase. According to the analysis, a pullback signals a cooling of unrealized gains, making it a crucial support level.
Bitcoin’s Exchange Netflow reveals that holders are not selling to realize profits despite recent gains. With a realized price of around $93k, most holders are in a position to sell.
Contrarily, they are buying more. Netflow indicates that BTC has had four days of negative flows out of seven. This supports the notion that demand is absorbing profit realization.
Future Prospects for BTC
Bitcoin’s Average True Range (ATR) has dropped to 2.4K, suggesting a cooling market with little upward or downward momentum. BTC continues to trade within a tight range.
Historically, low ATR levels have been followed by significant breakouts. In November 2024, ATR fell to 2.1K, sparking a Bitcoin rally to $108K.
With profit realization slowing, investor sentiment is becoming more bullish. Profitable holders are selling less, while others continue to accumulate BTC, creating a balanced market situation.
This dynamic improves Bitcoin’s chances of a breakout from the current consolidation.
If the market continues to cool, BTC could retake $96K and potentially attempt a move toward $98K. However, if consolidation continues, impatient holders may start selling, potentially causing a retracement to $92,900.
