Key Points
- Short-term Bitcoin holders are predominantly realizing losses, indicating a potential market reset.
- Long-term Bitcoin holders remain profitable, albeit with slowing momentum.
A shift in Bitcoin’s on-chain dynamics indicates that short-term holders are primarily bearing the brunt of realized losses. This trend could suggest a wider market reset.
Short-Term Holders Bear the Brunt
Glassnode reports that over 80% of the realized value in the Bitcoin market is currently attributed to short-term holders who acquired their coins within the past 155 days. There’s been a sharp increase in realized losses among these holders, coinciding with Bitcoin’s drop from over $100k to around $83.7k. This behavior implies that recent buyers, who entered during Bitcoin’s parabolic rally, have been exiting at a loss due to increased volatility.
The imbalance of realized profit and loss suggests a strong emotional response from newer participants and a decrease in confidence in the cryptocurrency’s immediate upside.
Long-Term Holders Remain Profitable
Despite short-term holders absorbing the majority of the losses, long-term holders continue to be a consistent source of profit realization. However, this trend is weakening. The net difference between long-term profits and short-term losses is also narrowing, as shown in the second chart. This “profit-loss equilibrium” indicates a neutral zone where inflows slow, market demand decreases, and price momentum stalls. Such conditions have historically preceded consolidation phases or minor corrections.
Bitcoin’s price action reflects a shift in sentiment. On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin has slipped below the 50-day MA of $85,064, trading at $83,794 at the time of writing. The technical breach and decreasing volume support the on-chain narrative of diminishing bullish strength across the board.
If the market continues to digest earlier gains with declining capital inflows, BTC may revisit the $80k support zone. However, if long-term holder profit-taking remains steady without sparking excessive selling, Bitcoin could stabilize before attempting a fresh move higher.
The current dominance of short-term losses and the decreasing intensity of long-term profit-taking are signs of a transitional market phase for Bitcoin. The data suggests a cooling cycle, so market participants should exercise caution and patience.
