Key Points
- Grayscale has withdrawn its Ethereum futures ETF filing, causing confusion among analysts.
- The withdrawal has led to speculation about the SEC’s next decision and the future of Ethereum.
Grayscale has recently retracted its application for an Ethereum [ETH] futures ETF, leaving analysts puzzled about the implications this could have on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) subsequent course of action.
Analysts’ Views on Grayscale’s Decision
James Seyffart, an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, previously referred to the application as a “Trojan horse”. He suggested that Grayscale could have used it as grounds for suing the SEC if their spot Ethereum ETF application was rejected, similar to the Bitcoin [BTC] situation.
Seyffart speculated on the possibility of the SEC having communicated with Grayscale, leading to the withdrawal. However, he admitted this was purely conjecture.
Bloomberg ETF analysts have consistently predicted a low likelihood of approval for spot Ethereum ETFs in May. The market seems to share this sentiment, with May approval bets falling below 10% according to prediction markets, Polymarket.
Speculations and Predictions
Eric Balchunas, another Bloomberg analyst, wondered if Grayscale’s withdrawal indicated they wouldn’t pursue a lawsuit this time. Seyffart, when questioned if the withdrawal could hint at a May approval, expressed doubt but didn’t rule out the possibility.
Nate Geraci of ETF Store also found Grayscale’s move difficult to interpret. He suggested the only reason he would withdraw if he were Grayscale is if he had “assurances” that a spot Ethereum ETF would eventually get approved.
Eleanor Terrett, a market observer and FOX Business journalist, proposed that a lack of demand for Ethereum futures could be behind Grayscale’s decision. She noted that other Ethereum futures ETFs were approved under different frameworks.
Gary Gensler, the SEC Chair, recently sidestepped questions about the status of the spot Ethereum ETF filings, providing vague answers.
In the meantime, Ethereum has maintained its short-term price range of $2900 — $3300 since mid-April. Despite over $30 million capital inflows last week, there was no range breakout. The SEC’s late May decision on spot Ethereum ETF applications could potentially alter this.
