Key Points
- Bitcoin (BTC) rose by over 68% in Q1 2024, largely due to US spot BTC ETF flows.
- Fred Krueger predicts Bitcoin could reach $195K by the end of 2024 due to these flows.
Bitcoin, or BTC, had a strong performance in the first quarter of 2024. This was largely due to inflows from newly launched US spot BTC ETFs (exchange-traded funds).
BTC saw a rally of more than 68% in Q1, with its value rising from $38.5K to $73.7K. The total flows from the spot ETFs reached $12 billion during this period, and total assets surpassed $59 billion. This drove BTC’s market capitalization to over $1 trillion.
Fred Krueger’s Predictions
Fred Krueger, a Bitcoin maximalist and serial investor, used historical data to predict that BTC could reach $195K by the end of 2024.
Krueger shared his analysis and assumptions on X (formerly Twitter), focusing on the 2024 cycle. He projected that BTC could see another $50 billion in inflows this year from ETFs and exchanges. With a multiplier of 50, this would result in a market cap of $3.9 trillion, or a BTC price of $195K.
He emphasized that the 2024 bull market cycle was mainly driven by ETF flows from traditional finance. However, he also suggested that BTC could reach $500K in two years before experiencing a significant crash.
Krueger did not specify what could trigger this crash, but he stated that the halving event could moderate the price drop without necessarily triggering a major rally. In other words, he views ETF flows as a more significant price driver than the supply shock caused by the halving event.
Current Bitcoin Performance
At the time of writing, Bitcoin had fallen below $70K and retested the $68K level before recovering to $69K.
Crypto market analyst Rekt Capital stated that this move confirms a breakout after BTC recorded a weekly candlestick close of $71.2K, surpassing the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69K.
