Key Points
- Bitcoin’s demand is yet to peak due to the low influx of new investors, according to on-chain analyst Axel Adler.
- Bitcoin’s Mean Coin Age (MCA) is on an upward trend, indicating that long-term holders are selling the coin.
Bitcoin Demand Yet to Peak
According to Axel Adler, an on-chain analyst, Bitcoin’s highest level of demand is yet to be reached. This could be due to the relatively low number of new investors compared to past bull markets. Adler also mentioned that new investors might start buying Bitcoin at a later date. This belief is supported by the Ratio of Old and New Bitcoin Supply.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin is not near the high demand zones yet. This suggests that the probability of a price increase in the mid to long term could be higher.
Stagnancy in New Investors
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price was $63,719, having dropped nearly 5% in the past week. To predict whether Bitcoin’s price will increase, user engagement and growth on the network were analyzed.
The metrics provided by IntoTheBlock include new addresses, active addresses, and zero-balance addresses. Active addresses represent the number of existing users transacting on the network. New addresses represent the number of addresses completing their first transaction. Currently, Bitcoin’s active addresses have increased by 6.47% in the last week.
Zero-balance addresses have seen a 22% increase, while new addresses have remained almost the same. This stagnation in new addresses mirrors Adler’s earlier point. This could potentially lead to another price decrease.
Long-term Holders Selling
The Mean Coin Age (MCA) was also analyzed. This metric shows the average age of all coins based on the weighted purchase price. A rising MCA indicates that old coins are moving from their initial storage, suggesting that long-term holders are selling. Conversely, a falling MCA suggests that coin holders are not selling but accumulating new coins and moving them to a cold wallet.
Currently, Bitcoin’s 90-day MCA continues its upward trend from June 1. If this trend continues, the coin’s price might drop, and the $61,000 prediction could become a reality.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart also fell. The RSI is a technical oscillator that tracks an asset’s momentum and indicates whether a cryptocurrency is overbought or oversold. Currently, Bitcoin’s RSI is nearing the oversold region, suggesting that a further price fall could be possible. However, if buying pressure increases, the price might rebound. As for demand, it might remain low for the next few weeks.
