Key Points

Ethereum is currently undervalued compared to Bitcoin, a trend last seen in 2019.
Despite this, structural issues and weak demand may prevent a strong ETH rebound.

Ethereum is currently undervalued compared to Bitcoin, a situation not seen since 2019.

However, factors such as supply pressure, weak demand, and flat activity may hinder an ETH rebound.

Ethereum’s Value Relative to Bitcoin

Analysis of different Ethereum metrics suggests that ETH could see potential gains soon.

However, the on-chain data doesn’t support this outright historical repetition.

ETH is now at its most undervalued level compared to Bitcoin, as shown by the ETH/BTC MVRV ratio.

This trend was last seen in 2019.

In previous cycles (2017, 2018, and 2019), similar conditions led to steep Ethereum rallies.

ETH outperformed BTC for months during these periods, driven by speculative inflows and strong altcoin rotations.

However, the current cycle presents a different scenario.

Despite ETH’s undervaluation, structural headwinds have created uncertainty.

This limits its ability to follow past mean-reversion trends.

Unlike previous years, the macro BTC narrative remains dominant, fueled by ETF flows and institutional buying.

Ethereum’s supply recently surpassed 120.7 million ETH, reaching a new all-time high.

This increase in supply signals potential selling pressure, especially without consistent burning activity or strong demand absorption.

In past cycles, supply tightening helped drive price growth.

However, this time, inflationary pressure could limit ETH’s upside compared to Bitcoin, as scarcity weakens.

With burned fees dropping significantly, ETH’s total supply is no longer decreasing.

Network usage has also been largely stagnant since 2021.

Key metrics like active addresses and number of transactions have not had sustainable growth.

This suggests that user adoption and utility are plateauing.

Meanwhile, Ethereum last saw over 85,000 ETH withdrawn from Binance in one of the largest recent withdrawals.

Historically, such large withdrawals have commonly been preceded by bullish price moves due to low sell-side liquidity.

As soon as ETH regained the $1,900 threshold, this sparked questions about whether whales were stocking up for the rebound.

The fewer tokens found in exchanges, the lower the selling pressure must be, and that could provoke a supply squeeze.

However, not all large outflows assure a rally—some are just havens during uncertainty.

The next few days might be critical in establishing whether this is an accumulation or merely caution.