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Home Crypto

Will the Inauguration Cause a Crypto Crash? Decoding the Trump Effect

Tech Uncertainty: Historical Trends Point to Potential Crypto-Market Downturn following US Presidential Transitions

Max Porter by Max PorterVerified Author
Dec 3, 2024
2 min. read
Will the Inauguration Cause a Crypto Crash? Decoding the Trump Effect

Key Points

  • The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, experienced a significant surge following the US election.
  • Analysts predict a potential market correction due to historical trends and investor caution.

The cryptocurrency market witnessed a significant increase post the US election, with Bitcoin rising by 30%. The surge has led to a bullish sentiment among investors, many of whom attribute the momentum to the election result.

However, there is a growing conversation about a potential slowdown. Historical data on market trends during US election years suggest that the rally might slow down after the inauguration on 20th January 2025. This information brings a note of caution to the otherwise optimistic sentiment in the crypto market.

Historical Trends and Market Predictions

Analyses by Bloomberg and Macrobond Financial show that US markets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, often rally after a presidential election but tend to lose momentum once the President-elect takes office. The current market surge, driven by optimism for the incoming administration, reflects this pattern.

However, with over two months until Inauguration Day, analysts warn that investor enthusiasm may be exceeding realistic expectations, indicating a potential cooling-off period ahead.

Market Reactions to Election Outcomes

Data from research group TS Lombard suggests that market euphoria is typically stronger when the elected president is from the Republican party, perceived as more business-friendly. This perception amplifies post-election rallies, as investor sentiment aligns with expectations of pro-business policies, tax incentives, and deregulation initiatives that usually follow Republican administrations.

This dynamic has fueled recent market surges, particularly following the current Republican victory.

Bitcoin’s post-election surge has been particularly noteworthy, with its value increasing over 30%, reinforcing its status as the leading cryptocurrency. Other cryptocurrencies like Solana have mirrored these gains, reflecting the broader market’s bullish sentiment.

While analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s upward trajectory continuing beyond the inauguration, they warn that the path ahead may have challenges as the market adjusts to changing economic and policy landscapes.

However, not all analysts share this optimism. For instance, Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, warns that Bitcoin’s price could face a significant correction of up to 30% before regaining its bullish momentum.

Current Market Performance

As per CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin was trading at $96,198.85, reflecting a slight 0.08% dip over the past 24 hours. Meanwhile, altcoins have shown mixed performance. Ethereum is priced at $3,663.51, down 0.26%, while Solana has risen to $229.68, gaining 1.03%.

Remarkably, Ripple and Cardano have emerged as standout performers, with impressive daily gains exceeding 13% and 15%, respectively, showcasing the diverse momentum within the crypto market.

Tags: Ethereum (ETH)

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