Key Points
- XRP’s realized profit-to-loss ratio drops to 0.38, signaling intense capitulation.
- Falling XRPL fees and SOPR below 1 confirm widespread loss realization.
On-chain data from Glassnode shows that XRP’s 90-day realized profit-to-loss ratio has declined to 0.38.
This indicates that for every $1 in realized profit, investors are locking in $2.63 in losses, a pattern the firm describes as intense capitulation.
The metric is well below the 1.0 equilibrium threshold that separates net-profit from net-loss conditions.
It also marks a sharp reversal from the 2025 peak near 50, when realized gains significantly exceeded losses.
At the time of analysis, XRP traded around $1.10, below its aggregate realized price of roughly $1.48.
This suggests that the average holder is currently at a loss on a cost-basis basis.
Glassnode noted that the ratio’s distance from equilibrium reflects a market dominated by loss-taking rather than profit realization.
A similar loss-heavy structure was last observed in early 2022.
Network Activity and Profitability Metrics
Additional indicators show weakening network demand.
XRPL fees, measured on a 90-day average, fell from about 5,900 XRP per day in February 2025 to around 500 XRP, a decline of more than 90%.
Transaction fees are commonly used as a proxy for block-space demand, and the drop indicates reduced on-chain activity.
Meanwhile, XRP’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) decreased from approximately 1.16 in July 2025 to 0.96 in early 2026.
A SOPR reading below 1.0 means that coins moved on-chain are, on average, sold at a loss.
Glassnode data further shows that about 41.5% of the circulating XRP supply, roughly 26.5 billion tokens, is currently held at a loss.
Around 62.8% of XRP’s realized market capitalization is concentrated among investors who established positions within the past six months.
This distribution suggests a high share of holders with cost bases near recent price highs.
Understanding the Capitulation Phase
The realized profit-to-loss ratio compares the total dollar value of realized gains to realized losses over a set period, here smoothed across 90 days.
A value of 1.0 represents balance, while 0.38 reflects a market structurally dominated by loss realization.
Historically, similar extremes in Bitcoin cycles, such as in late 2018 and late 2022, coincided with prolonged downturns before eventual stabilization.
However, such readings alone do not determine the timing or certainty of a recovery.
The concentration of supply among recent buyers may increase sensitivity to further price declines.
As prices remain below many holders’ entry levels, participants face the choice of holding or realizing losses.
With network activity declining simultaneously, on-chain metrics point to reduced demand alongside elevated selling pressure.
